During the first and second quarter of 2022, H-BLIX has executed a supply and demand market study for the Polish Wind Energy Association (PWEA), named: “Offshore wind vessel availability until 2030: Baltic Sea and Polish perspective”. The aim of the study is to understand the installation vessel market for the offshore wind energy industry up to 2030, specifically for the Baltic Sea and Poland in the context of the worldwide market. The study consists of a review of worldwide offshore wind development goals and relevant trends, and an analysis of vessel supply versus demand including an indication of the risk of non-availability.
Based on numerous publicly available sources, offshore wind capacity installation accelerates significantly towards 2030, both worldwide as well as in the Baltic Sea and Poland. The first significant shortages of installation vessels for foundations, cables and turbines occur in 2024-2025. Even larger vessel shortages are expected between 2028 – 2030. It is unlikely shortages in the near future will be solved, leading to part of the projects being postponed.
The worldwide shortages pose a risk for project execution worldwide. So for project developers worldwide, including those in the Baltic Sea and Poland, it is vital to secure installation vessels as soon as practically feasible.
From a worldwide perspective, the ambitious targets can only be met if the installation vessel gap is closed, which requires a significant amount of new vessels to be added to the worldwide fleet. This will only materialize in a positive investment climate, which requires proactive involvement by governments in conjunction with the industry.
Providing the shortage gaps are bridged, by 2030 35 WTIV, 32 FIV and 57 CLV will be in operation, capable of installing ca. 47 GW of new offshore wind capacity annually on worldwide basis.
Study objective and purpose
The aim of the study is to understand the installation vessel market for the offshore wind energy industry up to 2030, specifically for the Baltic Sea and Poland in the context of the worldwide market. The study consists of the following main topics:
- A review of the offshore wind energy market in terms of development goals and forecasted turbine and foundation trends,
- An analysis of the availability of vessels capable of turbine, foundation, offshore substation and/or cable installation, including their potential allocation between different regions of the world,
- An analysis of the relationship between the demand and supply of services provided by these vessels up to 2030, including an indication of the risk of non-availability
Presentation of the study
The study is presented in the form of a publicly available report, of which key findings were presented during the The Polish Wind Energy Association conference on the 14th of June 2022 in Serock, Poland. The full report can be found here: https://blixconsultancy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/H-BLIX_Offshore-wind-vessel-availability-until-2030-final-report-July-2022.pdf